Saturday, May 27, 2017

Where do we stand?

The Zillow Zestimate on the house is looking great!

Let's do some math, assuming the Zestimate is right. We get 3% less (see Comparables in the Neighborhood), so: $703,957.

The Real Estate Excise Tax (REET) is 1.28%. Assume we pay the buyer's and seller's agents 3% each (standard, but potentially negotiable).

REET - $9,011
Agents - $42,237

Net proceeds - $652,709

Various costs include the $4500 soils engineer, the $3600 surveyor, $1500 in building permit fees, $3000 for the structural engineer, $7000 for the furnace, and $1500 for landscaping so far. Rough numbers, but I'm in about $21,100.

Redoing the roof and gutters is in the $20,000 range, and I think serious landscaping probably gets there, too. New kitchen appliances, alone, would be $7000. New cabinets and any remodeling? $15,000? That's $62,000 I haven't spent yet, and doesn't include painting, new doors. Say $65,000. The Master Bath? Bath 3?

Adjusted Sales Price - $652,709
- Cost Basis ($467,000 + $21,100) = $164,609 proceeds

Do nothing (no roof, no landscaping) - 33.7% return on original investment
Do $65k (as described) - 18% return on original + $65k investment
Do $110k (bathrooms, remodeling) - 9.1% return on original + $110k investment

Obviously, anything more than a $164,609 remodel starts costing money (unless it increases the sales price).

Plan A

Do the $65,000 as described
Pour concrete, frame walls--extend garage, extend breezeway, remodel bathrooms, refinish floors

Budget: $110,000
Target 2018 asking price: $750,000

Plan B

Do the $65,000 as described

Budget: $65,000
Target 2018 asking price: $730,000

Plan C

Do the $20,000 roof, spend a small amount improving everything in general.

Budget: $25,000
Target 2017 asking price: $700,000

Everything is subject to debate, but it helps to walk through the numbers every once and a while.


AskingSales PriceREETAgentsNetPurchaseSunk CostsAddl InvestmentProfitTotal InvROI
$725,729$703,957$9,011$42,237$652,709$467,000$21,100$0$164,609$488,10033.72%
Plan A$750,000$727,500$9,312$43,650$674,538$467,000$21,100$110,000$76,438$598,10012.78%
Plan B$730,000$708,100$9,064$42,486$656,550$467,000$21,100$65,000$103,450$553,10018.70%
Plan C$700,000$679,000$8,691$40,740$629,569$467,000$21,100$25,000$116,469$513,10022.70%
Limit$766,660$743,660$9,519$44,620$689,522$467,000$21,100$145,000$56,422$633,1008.91%

Time to replace the furnace



To sell the house, I need a heating system, not the six portable electric heaters I'm using currently. Electric heat is just fine for BR3 and the breezeway (having lived with it for nearly 3 years), but 1) it's too expensive to heat the whole house; 2) I have a gas meter; 3) buyers will not accept tripping over portable heaters.

I got four bids last week, and Ballard Natural Gas was the standout. The lowest bid for a model that I like and the best quality bid in terms of detail and transparency. I picked them Tuesday, May 23, and they scheduled the installation for May 30.

EL296UH070XV36B62W88 is a high-efficiency (96% of gas becomes heat), 70,000 BTU, 2-stage, variable speed unit to replace the old oil furnace. They will install it facing west (the oil furnace faces north, making it harder for a technician to service). It has a lifetime warranty on the primary and secondary heat exchangers, 10 years parts, 3 years labor, and it should last 20+ years.

The other bidders were:

  • Washington Energy Services - Good bid process, highest bid and I'm not sure the caught all the details. Their bid calls for Bryant equipment (which I have a bad feeling about) and was vague on some key points, like the BTUs. 
  • Greenwood Heating and Air Conditioning - Wanted me to not get a city permit. They bid Trane equipment (which I don't like as much as Lennox--again, just a feeling). They, too, were vague.
  • Innovative Comfort Systems was less professional than the other 3. Their bid, several days later when it finally came in, was utterly vague, tantamount to "Install furnace...$6,500".
The Lennox model qualifies for a $350 Puget Sound Energy rebate and Lennox has a $175 rebate, as well. The $7,297.16 cost goes on my new Wells Fargo home improvement credit line with $40 late fees and 30% interest. If I pay 12 months on time, no fees, no interest. Also, no penalty for pre-payment. Rather than pay Ballard in full, I get to improve my credit score (perhaps) and I spread the risk of a sudden drop in real estate prices.

They will run a new wire and install a Lennox iComfort (10F81-1) thermostat. I'd like a Nest or a home automation solution, but it is pretty easily swapped out. I'll give the Lennox a try. It connects to the home WiFi and displays a 5-day weather forecast, so it can't be too dumb.

The price includes Level B "premium" air duct cleaning, both supply and return. This is optional, high-margin upsell, but I think the ducts need cleaning--they've been unused for almost two years, and oil heat is sootier than gas. I'll watch carefully as the work is performed.

The bid includes capping off the greenhouse duct that was added by the previous owner. We'll use that opening to route the PVC vents. The new furnace doesn't need the metal duct to the chimney, but I'll see what they propose. The idea of venting the basement through chimney sounds useful.

When I know what I'm doing with interior partitions and plumbing changes, we may have to re-route some ducts, but I think it makes sense to move ahead with the furnace rather than wait for the perfect design.

Owner's Manuals


Steps Project

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