Comparables in the Neighborhood

Update 5/27/2017: Circling back, I see that both these houses sold:

12023 9th - Ask: $1,225,000 Sold 5/18/16: $1,188,000 (3% under asking)
13017 3rd - Ask: $849,950 Sold 3/24/16: $819,000 (3.6% under asking)

13017 3rd before flipping:


I toured an open house Wednesday, 2/10/16, around the corner at 12023 9th Ave NW. It's a well-done contemporary right off the street with a driveway to a flag lot next to it. The house downhill in the back (the flag) is for sale, too, perhaps because the new house looms menacingly over it.

They did a lot of things right with this house, though--10' ceilings in the basement and first floor, 8'-9' on the second floor. Hydronic heating throughout, with mechanical air circulation to supplement. The garage opens to the great room right next to the kitchen with no steps--the realtor, Chuck Cady, pointed this out. The coming home experience is just right--park in your garage, close the door, step through a single door and put down the groceries.

By comparison, the house at 13017 3rd Ave. NW is overpriced junk. I took a lot of pictures during construction and saw shoddy work at every turn. It's a slab on grade on a busy arterial with hardly any yard. It's not surprising that it hasn't sold. Listed at $884,500 on September 12, the price dropped to $849,950 on September 30. And there it sits, 152 days on Zillow. The Zestimate is $572, 33% below asking. $347/SF.

4 BR, 2.5 Ba, 2450SF, Lot:8,158 - almost a tear-down of a 1948 house bought for $340 9/2014.
5 BR, 4 Ba, 3831SF, Lot: 7,497 - built new 2016

The new, well-done house, by the way, has a Zestimate of $958, 22% below asking. It seems like it should have a sound view, but it doesn't. $320/SF.

There's another new contemporary, 720 NW 125th Street, that isn't listed on Zillow, Trulia or Redfin. I watched them build this one, too, with radiant heat in the slab. It's extremely well done and it does have a gorgeous sound view. No yard, unfortunately, and 125th is a busier street than some--the new house is across from a bus stop. I think they're asking $1.2, but I'm not sure where I got that.

From city records, I see its an 8400 SF lot, 3765SF. The architect was Novion Group (206) 361-6188, 8634 3rd Ave NW. Structural by SSS. Built by Kohary Builders, 5600 Kirkwood Place N, Suite A, (206) 784-4505.

We're still here

After at least three months hiatus, I'm being forced to think about the remodeling project by Filco, the oil tank remediation people. I got the boss (Nate Montgomery) to say that they'd be done by the middle of February back in January--it seemed like an easy goal, but of course they've taken all the time.

Henry, the foreman, drives the Volvo Compact Excavator

The hiatus works because the house has been surviving the winter very nicely. The gutters are still clogged, various eave issues still exist, but there is no sign that the roof is leaking. (To be fair, I haven't looked.) I have six electric heaters (two built-in) running to convert the outside temperature of 43-55 into 65-69 inside. I put plastic over a few windows, closed off BR3 and BR2 and it's been okay. The electric bill doubled, but my gut feeling is that it's a win over $1400/year oil (but I haven't even verified that number).

Henry showed up with three big trucks this morning at about 7:20 a.m. (Nate said 8:00 a.m, but I was ready for them.) I'm prepared for "3-5 days" so I expect there will be a hole filling with rain over the weekend. Changes one's attitude about redundant front doors.

The Zestimate on the house is $594,792. I would need to spend $25,000 on a furnace, roof and gutters, perhaps, but if this inflation is true, that's a gross $127,792. I'm out of pocket for the survey, soils report, half the building permit, and structural engineering. The excise tax would be $9,517.

I need to hold it two years, to avoid capital gains, so I can't sell before October 27, 2016. Rather than sell in winter, we're talking about March 2017. The no remodeling scenario, then, is $467 + $12 (plans) + $25 improvements = basis is $504. If I list for $619 and sell for $595 my profit (minus excise) is $81,500. That's a 16% simple return, which is not bad.