Comparables in the Neighborhood

Update 5/27/2017: Circling back, I see that both these houses sold:

12023 9th - Ask: $1,225,000 Sold 5/18/16: $1,188,000 (3% under asking)
13017 3rd - Ask: $849,950 Sold 3/24/16: $819,000 (3.6% under asking)

13017 3rd before flipping:


I toured an open house Wednesday, 2/10/16, around the corner at 12023 9th Ave NW. It's a well-done contemporary right off the street with a driveway to a flag lot next to it. The house downhill in the back (the flag) is for sale, too, perhaps because the new house looms menacingly over it.

They did a lot of things right with this house, though--10' ceilings in the basement and first floor, 8'-9' on the second floor. Hydronic heating throughout, with mechanical air circulation to supplement. The garage opens to the great room right next to the kitchen with no steps--the realtor, Chuck Cady, pointed this out. The coming home experience is just right--park in your garage, close the door, step through a single door and put down the groceries.

By comparison, the house at 13017 3rd Ave. NW is overpriced junk. I took a lot of pictures during construction and saw shoddy work at every turn. It's a slab on grade on a busy arterial with hardly any yard. It's not surprising that it hasn't sold. Listed at $884,500 on September 12, the price dropped to $849,950 on September 30. And there it sits, 152 days on Zillow. The Zestimate is $572, 33% below asking. $347/SF.

4 BR, 2.5 Ba, 2450SF, Lot:8,158 - almost a tear-down of a 1948 house bought for $340 9/2014.
5 BR, 4 Ba, 3831SF, Lot: 7,497 - built new 2016

The new, well-done house, by the way, has a Zestimate of $958, 22% below asking. It seems like it should have a sound view, but it doesn't. $320/SF.

There's another new contemporary, 720 NW 125th Street, that isn't listed on Zillow, Trulia or Redfin. I watched them build this one, too, with radiant heat in the slab. It's extremely well done and it does have a gorgeous sound view. No yard, unfortunately, and 125th is a busier street than some--the new house is across from a bus stop. I think they're asking $1.2, but I'm not sure where I got that.

From city records, I see its an 8400 SF lot, 3765SF. The architect was Novion Group (206) 361-6188, 8634 3rd Ave NW. Structural by SSS. Built by Kohary Builders, 5600 Kirkwood Place N, Suite A, (206) 784-4505.

We're still here

After at least three months hiatus, I'm being forced to think about the remodeling project by Filco, the oil tank remediation people. I got the boss (Nate Montgomery) to say that they'd be done by the middle of February back in January--it seemed like an easy goal, but of course they've taken all the time.

Henry, the foreman, drives the Volvo Compact Excavator

The hiatus works because the house has been surviving the winter very nicely. The gutters are still clogged, various eave issues still exist, but there is no sign that the roof is leaking. (To be fair, I haven't looked.) I have six electric heaters (two built-in) running to convert the outside temperature of 43-55 into 65-69 inside. I put plastic over a few windows, closed off BR3 and BR2 and it's been okay. The electric bill doubled, but my gut feeling is that it's a win over $1400/year oil (but I haven't even verified that number).

Henry showed up with three big trucks this morning at about 7:20 a.m. (Nate said 8:00 a.m, but I was ready for them.) I'm prepared for "3-5 days" so I expect there will be a hole filling with rain over the weekend. Changes one's attitude about redundant front doors.

The Zestimate on the house is $594,792. I would need to spend $25,000 on a furnace, roof and gutters, perhaps, but if this inflation is true, that's a gross $127,792. I'm out of pocket for the survey, soils report, half the building permit, and structural engineering. The excise tax would be $9,517.

I need to hold it two years, to avoid capital gains, so I can't sell before October 27, 2016. Rather than sell in winter, we're talking about March 2017. The no remodeling scenario, then, is $467 + $12 (plans) + $25 improvements = basis is $504. If I list for $619 and sell for $595 my profit (minus excise) is $81,500. That's a 16% simple return, which is not bad.

They're baaack...the Oil Tank investigation

Filco (Seattle Tank) removed the oil tank on September 3rd and immediately reported that they had found evidence of a leak. A small leak, but one that needed to be investigated further. Because I'm insured against oil leaks by the state's PLIA agency, this is a mere inconvenience to me.

18 man-hours of work drilling for oil on October 28

One could conclude: a) Filco, knowing how the game works, always "finds" leaks when they remove a tank and then gets money from the state for the "fix." Or, b) the 67-year-old tank really did have a few pinholes that contaminated the soil under the tank. They pulled the tank out and filled in the hole without calling me out to see the holes or the oil-stained dirt so I would bet it's the former explanation, but the latter is plausible, I suppose.

I filed the forms with PLIA and Filco came out "immediately" 8 weeks later, on October 28. Three men spent six hours, starting at 8 a.m., drilling test holes at the tank site, closer to the street, and around in the backyard. We discovered that the rectangle with the string in the backyard is actually 2" of red cement--there's probably a patio slab out there.

They asked permission before punching through the 2" concrete slab they found

Today, November 3, they just showed up at 12:15 and knocked on the door. A geologist-type named Richard Simpson came with two of the guys insisting that they needed to drill deeper at the oil tank site than they did last week. He mentioned a stratum of bentonite clay when he thought I wasn't listening. I suggested that he should see the Zipper Geo soils report if he wants to understand my strata. Zipper used an auger drill, Filco has a rented hammer-type drill.

The guys re-drill on November 3. Mr. Simpson is in his car, presumably perusing the Zipper report.

Nate Montgomery, Gen. Mgr., Filco Company (nate@filcoenviro.com) (206) 547-8347

Richard Simpson, , LG, LHg, Filco Company. (Richard@filcoenviro.com)

Refrigerator Replacement Therapy

The Hotpoint CTX21DA refrigerator that came with the house began making very loud my-compressor-is-failing noises. I pulled it away from the wall, vacuumed the coils and tried to make the compressor as comfortable as possible, but it was moribund.

Ready to go--food in the cooler

Dirt in places that can't be cleaned

I had two choices: Buy the new fancy refrigerator and protect it during construction, or--thanks to Tanya for the suggestion--buy a modest refrigerator that can serve in the garage once the remodeling is done. I took her suggestion and bought a nice white General Electric model from Albert Lee on October 16. This matches brand and color with the range and microwave.

With tax and delivery, the new refrigerator was $603. They delivered it October 20.

Out with the old

The new unit is a GE GTS16DTHWW, serial number SF834982. The door swing can be reversed. The Hotpoint was 20.6 cu. ft., 6.3 of which was freezer. The new one is 15.5 cu. ft., 4.01 in the freezer.

Heating the House Electrically

Removing the diesel oil tank in the front yard was satisfying, but living in a 60-degree house not so much. Tanya and Kevin loaned an excellent quartz rod room heater, but its fan makes noise when it turns on. Also, I was using it in the bedroom and the kitchen was seriously cold, pre-chilling coffee mugs, for one thing.

A quick trip to Lowes to buy a $40 oil-filled heater and the problem is just about solved. Also, I turned on the electric heater in the entry that I turned off long ago. Went to Home Depot and found zero space heaters--they'll get them later in the year, I was told. Lowes had a broad selection.

Climate control system--fan and heater. The new "Utilitech" oil-filled heater is silent.

The quartz rod model on loan

Say Goodbye to the Oil Tank

Seattle Tank sent two men out today, and they worked more than 14 man-hours to remove the oil tank. It was harder than they expected, because it held on to the soil (after 68 years!) and because their A-frame rig wouldn't fit under the garage soffit.

After trying a number of solutions, they ended up cutting the tank into pieces with a Sawz-all.

They found what might be leaked oil in the soil, so it has to be tested. If the test is positive, then it's a big deal process with soil remediation and state inspectors. But I'm insured for it by PLIA, so it's no big deal. If you ask me (no one did), they found drips from the filling process.

The conduit against the house does not go to the tombstone light. Instead, it goes to an outlet and light fixture that were completely buried in the star jasmine. I helped them figure out that it wasn't energized and they moved it away and put it back. But the line absolutely does not continue across the front planting.

The weather was perfect--no direct sun, no rain, about 65 degrees. Speaking of 65 degrees...My house has no heat!! The first of many "perfectly good" assemblies I'll be destroying. Gack!

The "Before" picture. There's an outlet and light hidden to the right.

Lead guy was Patrick. Didn't get this guy's name. He's standing on the top of the tank.

They cut the top off first, then had to cut it into pieces.

Coffin-like hole once the old tank was removed.

And the "After" shot. They didn't do a great job cleaning up--no broom or hose down--but they knew they may have to dig all this up again if there is evidence of oil contamination. They didn't replace the roof drain line, either.

Hydronic or Something Else

As they work to remove and decommission the heating oil tank, I am considering how to heat the place.

Currently, the forced air furnace distributes heated air to the main part of the house and there are two electric wall heaters for the breezeway and BR3. We can replace the oil-fired furnace with a 96% efficient Lennox EL296V gas furnace and make minor adjustments on the ducts and vents for $7,346.37 (Greenwood Heating bid, 9/1/15). We still have to (or should) insulate the 1296 SF floor.

If we go that route, we might leave the two electric wall heaters in place (or move them slightly) and install a Mitsubishi mini-split in the Trees Room (on the wall between the entry ceiling and the Trees Room ceiling) that could provide heat for the 5,600 CF high-ceiling area, and the cool air would cover the whole house on peak cooling days. Those are about $5,000.

Back on April 23, I got a bid from Northwest Mechnical of $32,470, and a better price from Radiantec for a hydronic system on May 15. They bid $4,202.50 for the tubing under the floor, $5,646.90 for a Noritz NRC1111 boiler and custom heat exchanger and three-zone manifold system, and $1,200 for (30) Sunboard Sunfoam panels for the BR3 concrete floor. The total bid was $11,049.40 not including shipping (from Vermont) or any installation.

But, wait. Real oak floors aren't great with under-floor hydronic. The spot heat might dry out individual boards, leading to joint separation and/or "cupping." We could install the hydronic and deal with floor problems as they occur, or we could proactively remove the oak flooring and put in 1300 SF of, say, ceramic tile. That's about $9,750 not including the demo and disposal of the old floor. $7.50/SF is tile or hydronic-compatible engineered wood.

So, the hydronic approach is: $11,050 materials, $250 shipping, $10,000 installation, $2000 floor demo, $9750 new floor. That's $33,050.

Noritz NRC1111--18" x 24" x 9"

To compare apples to apples, let's assume we get the Noritz boiler ($1600) for tankless water heating, refinish the oak floors ($3570), and insulate the floor and ducts ($5000).

Hydronic and new tile/engr wood floors with 3 zones: $33,050
Forced air with some a/c but only 1 zone: $22,520

The trouble with these numbers is that I have bids for the forced air, but the hydronic installation could cost even more.

Three zones is useful for apartment/Airbnb solutions, but it's not worth $10,530. The other advantage of the hydronic is the elimination of the ugly baseboard vents--hydronic heats without moving dusty air around, which is very appealing. But we could make some pretty vents for $500.

Refinishing the oak floor is based on a 3/2/15 bid from Lane Hardwood. New oak is $11.25, but refinishing is $4.75/SF. However, we're only talking about refinishing the two bedrooms, living room and hall--about 750 SF.

The forced air solution means a separate control for the Trees Room and just the electric heater for BR3. We might want a mini-split for BR3, or a second electric heater for BA3. The three baths might want electrically-heated floors with the $10,000 that we're "saving."