Want to place a $500,000 bet on 2026 home prices in this corner of Seattle? I'm not sure I do, either.
Key Trends in the 2023 Cost vs. Value Report (Journal of Light Construction 40,4 April 2023 p7) caught my attention, combined with recent YouTube videos. In terms of cost recovered, only a few improvements pay for themselves. In the Pacific region, only one--HVAC conversion to electric heat pump. Garage and entry door replacement and new vinyl siding are close to 100%.
"Larger...projects such as upscale kitchen, bath, and master-suite remodels, don't influence the value of the home nearly as much" because my dream kitchen isn't yours. Or, to quote a YouTube video, "Don't get sentimental." The home's location and curb appeal speak the loudest. You can spend a lot on a light fixture you think exudes class, but it could turn out to be a "ding" to a buyer.
What buyers want is a sense of freedom from immediate repairs, a feeling that the house is in order--everything works, nothing leaks, and there are no hassles looming. Looking attractive for the neighbors is part of that. If the bathroom is fading beige, but it's clean, they can enjoy the thought of painting it their color down the road. For remodeling, we start with that buyer falling in love and make a plan to get there.
The following sections are a plan to spend about $80,000. From the street: New roof, fresh exterior paint. Fence hides second front door. New carport. New front walk.
Entering the living room: Gleaming hardwood floors, new mirror over fireplace. New kitchen counters, new sink. Pristine workshop. New carpet and trim in BR3.
Redfin says the value is $964,753, while Zillow and Trulia say $1,003,900. Zillow and Redfin have ranges: $924k to $1.08M (Zillow) or $946k to $1.04M (Redfin). If I could sell it as is for, say, $860k, that would be ~$380k in profit, roughly 10%/year. The $80k of improvements would return $100k more--these aren't vanity projects, they go directly to the buyer's first impression.
Put another way, using Redfin's more conservative numbers, an $80k investment could move the selling price from $900k (below Redfin's range) to $1M (near Redfin's top).
Exterior
So we start with the exterior. We have an end of life roof and gutters with dings and rotted fascia. We're looking at $25-35 to re-roof, fix the fascia and provide new gutters. That will dress up the look a lot.
At the sides and back, the siding requires some carpentry before we repaint. Hopefully we can keep that to $5 or $7.5. We have to clear out the junk on the side yards.
The driveway is "rustic," breaking up from the tree roots. I actually think that's okay. I'd like to put in low voltage lighting, but buyers don't shop at night. (Alt: new pavers: $10)
The front walk (~100 SF) is cracked and dirty. We could build a deck over the existing porch to eliminate a step up at the front door, and we could build a new front walk that ramps up to that deck. Wheelchair-friendly. Age in place. $8
Carport structure. $12
Repair/replace deck at BR 1. $2
Fence at breezeway. $2
Interior
Refinish the hardwood floors. $2 Extend the hardwood to the area that's carpeted now.
Light kitchen remodel--new sink, countertops. $4
Fix bad trim everywhere--repair drywall in hall. $2
Replace cracked mirror $1
Replace carpet in BR3. 200 SF, $3
Replace cabinets in BA2 $1
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